The much larger than anticipated draw in US crude stocks (although a large portion of this was on the West Coast) helped ease concerns of oversupply for now and allowed crude to close higher on the day. Week on week values still have WTI futures falling, however, the rest of the energy complex continues to rise. Unrest in the Middle East will continue to keep a floor on prices as the fear premium remains for now. Global economic growth and potential impacts from ongoing US trade disputes with a number of nations could become a factor for the energy sector. Tropical weather has not been a factor thus far this hurricane season, but it is still early yet not too late to enter hedges if you need to cover that potential risk.
Key Price Drivers
GEOPOLITICAL –. Ceasefire was restored in Gaza on Friday following a violent exchange along the fence that separates Israel and Gaza that killed an Israeli soldier during protests. Yesterday, Israeli military shot down a Syrian fighter jet after it entered Israel’s airspace. Syria’s story differs and reports the jet was conducting an anti-terrorist operation. ISIS is claiming responsibility for deaths of 166 in Syria from targeted suicide bombings in Suwayada. ISIS is also taking responsibility for suicide bombing in Afghanistan that targeted the exiled Afghan vice president who was returning from Turkey. Another suicide bombing at a mosque in Nigeria occurred on Monday and Boko Haram is suspected.
ECONOMIC – US GDP report will be out on Friday. New home sales dropped to lowest level since October 2017. Treasury yields fell after home sales data was released. Market still following trade disputes with a number of nations and what those actions might have on the overall economy. Some attribute recent US growth to companies taking action ahead of tariff changes. Some analysts are seeing signs of a recession and want to see Fed focus on keeping inflation in check. President Trump’s pressure on Fed to review rate increase plans has met with mixed results in market. Some support his comments; others say Fed should stay the course.
Key Price Drivers
GEOPOLITICAL –. Ceasefire was restored in Gaza on Friday following a violent exchange along the fence that separates Israel and Gaza that killed an Israeli soldier during protests. Yesterday, Israeli military shot down a Syrian fighter jet after it entered Israel’s airspace. Syria’s story differs and reports the jet was conducting an anti-terrorist operation. ISIS is claiming responsibility for deaths of 166 in Syria from targeted suicide bombings in Suwayada. ISIS is also taking responsibility for suicide bombing in Afghanistan that targeted the exiled Afghan vice president who was returning from Turkey. Another suicide bombing at a mosque in Nigeria occurred on Monday and Boko Haram is suspected.
ECONOMIC – US GDP report will be out on Friday. New home sales dropped to lowest level since October 2017. Treasury yields fell after home sales data was released. Market still following trade disputes with a number of nations and what those actions might have on the overall economy. Some attribute recent US growth to companies taking action ahead of tariff changes. Some analysts are seeing signs of a recession and want to see Fed focus on keeping inflation in check. President Trump’s pressure on Fed to review rate increase plans has met with mixed results in market. Some support his comments; others say Fed should stay the course.
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